We have seen a truly interesting week. NASA performed the longest journey in human history, yet this was almost ignored as all eyes remained fixated on the conflict in Iran. The “good” news: a two-week ceasefire has been achieved. However, the first day of negotiations did not end well.

This week, I want to look at how sustainable the current Bitcoin run-up really is. What impact did the war actually have, and how does Bitcoin’s performance compare to the stock market? Let’s dive in.

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Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

The War Impact: BTC vs. TradFi

Since February 28th, the world has been watching the escalation in Iran. Let’s look at the market movement since that date.

Bitcoin has moved up roughly 12% from its February 28th low. On the news of the ceasefire, it spiked initially but then retraced, leaving us with zero change.

In comparison, the Nasdaq saw a 3% increase (recovering 10.4% after an initial 6.8% drop). The S&P 500 has been basically flat, surging 7.9% only after the ceasefire announcement following a 7.2% drop.

What does this show us? Compared to the stock market, Bitcoin is not showing significant strength. We didn't even see a meaningful counter-rally after the ceasefire announcement. In my view, this isn't unusual. As I’ve mentioned before, we are in a bear market, and there is no substantial organic strength incoming. Even the massive purchases by Michael Saylor aren't enough to shift the macro trend.

We are seeing news-driven moves that are typically unsustainable and often retraced within days (see e.g. a research by CryptoDaily).

Furthermore, the economic impact of this conflict will likely hit in the coming weeks. It’s about more than just oil prices; we’re talking about fertilizers and helium (essential for chip production). I expect oil prices to stay higher for longer, which will continue to weigh on the global economy and, by extension, crypto prices.

The Liquidity Debate: GLI vs. M2

Liquidity was already rolling over before the conflict began, but the war is now acting as an accelerant. Global liquidity has declined for four straight weeks. The rising Dollar, bond market volatility, and declining Fed liquidity are driving this move per the Global Liquidity Index (GLI).

In my previous report, Does Bitcoin really lag Global Liquidity?, I noted that BTC typically tops before global liquidity, with the two diverging early in bear markets: Exactly what we are seeing now. BTC then bottoms once the liquidity cycle hits its floor, a process that took about a year in previous cycles. We are currently about half a year into that process.

A Note on the "Pal vs. Howell" Perspectives

Per GLI data, the liquidity cycle has topped and is in a structural decline. I know Raoul Pal (Global Macro Investor) constantly suggests that liquidity is still rising. Here are two things to consider:

1. The Data Depth: Raoul focuses on simple, public aggregates like M2 Money Supply. GLI is a much broader proprietary measure that tracks the flow of cash and credit and, crucially, the momentum/growth rate rather than just absolute levels. It essentially starts where M2 ends.

2. The Reality Check: Raoul is still calling for a Bitcoin cycle top in Q2 2026. That would require a surge of 80–100% within the next 2.5 months. I’ll leave that scenario to your imagination, but I cannot see it being anywhere close to reality.

Why is liquidity declining?

1. Global Tightening: Japan is considering more rate hikes (after 150 bps since July ‘24). The EU expects 2–3 hikes, and the UK anticipates two. The Fed has zero rate cuts priced for this year. China is the only outlier currently easing.

2. Oil: Higher energy costs are tightening financial conditions and borrowing rates.

3. Fiscal: Tax refunds are being offset by the rising cost of living and energy.

In my perspective, the market did not yet broadly price in the full risks related to the conflict and its mid term causes. Once we see this, I expect a further drag on liquidity via rising bond market volatility and a rising dollar.

For me, the posts on X from Trump, are nothing more as noise in the global theatre and we will on a long not even realize in the chart pattern that anything happened. The market was already before the war in a bear market (for Bitcoin) and beyond the topping for the stocks.

Hence, it is still in a reasonable scenario to hit ATHs for the stock market on a short notice, as we are not far from it. However, I do not expect it to grow mid term and due to all the side effects of the war, see a decline over the next months.

Final Thoughts

The overall cycle turned long before the conflict. The war is simply lasting longer than expected, creating unclear outcomes that further tighten liquidity. The Fed is currently unable to ease unless a major systemic break occurs, which would lead to a downturn first anyway.

Bitcoin’s structure remains firmly in a bear market. As long as we stay below $80k without a daily candle close above it, the thesis doesn’t change. The Realized Price is slowly moving downward, currently sitting at $54,200. Historically, we have always dipped below this level before a true bottom is formed. That remains my base case for the coming months.

Short term, noise from X and Truth Social will cause volatility, but the overall picture stays the same: the bottom is not in. Bear markets are exhausting, but now is the time to calm the anxiety and sit on your hands.

Portfolio Management

No changes this week. My shorts are still in place. I took a small counter-rally trade for myself, but as I’m not a day-trading content creator, I’m keeping the focus here on the macro strategy.

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

There has been very little change over the last week, largely due to the Easter break and the persistent uncertainty hanging over the global markets. The stock market attempted a downward move but rallied back following a series of posts on X. Between volatile market sentiment and a very irritating post from President Trump via Truth Social, forecasting the immediate week ahead is almost impossible.

As my core thesis remains the same, I want to pivot today. There is a saying that fortunes are made in bull markets, but they are designed in bear markets. While I remain patient with my cash allocation, waiting does not mean doing nothing. It is the perfect time to look “under the hood” of the entire ecosystem to see where the real value is hiding.

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Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Market Health

To understand the health of the market beyond Bitcoin, we have to analyze the distribution of the current $2.29 trillion total crypto market cap.

Out of this, we have the following distribution:

• BTC: 59%

• L1s: 25%

• Stablecoins: 14%

• DeFi: 2%

The total market cap is down 46,5% from its $4.28 trillion peak. This is remarkably consistent with the 2021/2022 cycle, which was down 40% at this same 5.5-month mark. If we follow the historical “peak-to-trough” decline patterns of 2018 and 2022, we could see the total market cap fall roughly 62% from its peak to around $1.62 trillion. This would represent a further 30% decline from current levels, placing us exactly where history suggests we should be in this bear market.

Stablecoins

Everyone is bullish on stablecoins, and for good reason. Supply has surged by $192 billion over the last 2.5 years to an All-Time High (ATH) of $317 billion. Despite the downtrend in total crypto market cap, stablecoins have maintained their momentum.

However, we are now entering a sideways phase that mirrors previous cycles:

• In the ‘21 cycle, stablecoin supply peaked in April 2022, nearly five months after Bitcoin’s top

• In the current cycle, we are also five months past the BTC top and flatlining as capital flows stall in “risk-off” mode and leverage unwinds

The game-changer here is real-world utility. Stablecoins are rapidly becoming the preferred rail for cross-border payments and remittances. Because of this, seeing a “mint” alert on X for USDT doesn’t necessarily signal an immediate market pump anymore; it could simply be liquidity for global commerce.

Regulation & Institutional Moves

The GENIUS Act now prohibits U.S. stablecoin issuers from sharing yield with holders. While this supports the business models of giants like Circle and Tether, it creates a disadvantage for the end-user.

Interestingly, Tether recently hired KPMG as its auditor, sparking rumors of a potential IPO. We also expect them to launch a U.S.-compliant stablecoin to wrap around services like payroll, e-commerce, and banking.

A lot of building is being done, which eventually will lead to a further growth of stabelcoins and could trigger a fight with the traditional banking industry as they lose their old ways of extracting fees.

Perpetual Futures Markets

If stablecoins are the infrastructure, Perpetual Futures (Perps) are the energy. A perp is a derivative with no expiry date that uses a funding rate to stay in line with the spot price. They have stripped away complexity: no time decay, no expiry dates, allowing liquidity to concentrate 24/7.

For retail, this is the ultimate speculative tool. The crypto perps market grew 75% between January 2024 and January 2026, reaching volumes of $7.24 trillion. More importantly, Perp DEXs have increased their volume 8-fold, capturing 10.2% of the total market share.

The Rise of Hyperliquid

Hyperliquid has become the dominant force in this space, accounting for roughly 60% of DEX volume. Why is that so? Well, Hyperliquid is all and foremost one thing: Easy to use. One feature many exchanges and crypto services lack.

• Perp volumes are currently 4x daily spot volumes

• Retail energy is shifting: while Ethereum owned the ‘21 cycle and Solana the ‘25 cycle, the “animal spirits” are now converging on Hyperliquid

• HIP-3 & HyperEVM: Hyperliquid is expanding into a full financial system, allowing permissionless markets for commodities (oil, gold, silver), equities, and indices

Final Thoughts

The overall crypto market is in good shape, following a predictable structural path (as mentioned many times before). I see massive growth ahead for stablecoins in payments & remittance. Perps might be the narrative driver for the next bull run. This is why I am closely monitoring Perps platforms like Hyperliquid.

Bear markets are for deep research. The next bull run won’t look like the last one; it will be driven by the integration of modular markets and sophisticated on-chain derivatives.

Portfolio Management

No changes this week. My defensive stance remains, but my research is accelerating.

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about us being in the boring phase. However, looking at the global markets today, one could say we are anywhere but in a boring stage. We are seeing major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ printing lower lows and losing traction week after week.

Last week, in particular, saw a significant sell-off fueled by the Iran conflict and growing insecurity regarding its duration. Markets are struggling to price in the long-term economic impact of this geopolitical instability. While the USA might be hit the least, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia face massive challenges. Recession probabilities have surged, and we face a paradoxical setup: central banks are considering interest rate hikes to combat rising inflation even as economies weaken. With 10-year bond yields rising, the pressure on housing markets and government debt refinancing is becoming immense. This sounds like many things, but boring isn't one of them.

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Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Understanding the Drivers

First of all, I am not a geopolitical expert or a war strategist. You will hear many people right now who suddenly know everything: from military objectives to macroeconomics, sailing, and cooking. I don’t pretend to be any of those. My approach remains the same: I look at the data. I analyze the facts we see, compare them to how similar setups played out in the past, and identify where the highest probabilities lie. Having this said, let’s dive in.

Raising Volatility

I mentioned a while ago that we were likely to see rising volatility, and the charts are confirming this.

The VIX reflecting values over 20 typically signals a shift into risk-off mode; we are currently at 26. This reflects the deep-seated insecurity of the markets. However, we must think strategically: heightened volatility and market movements always bring opportunities for those who stay patient.

Where is the Stock Market Heading?

Based on the current trajectory of the conflict, a quick resolution seems unlikely. While a single tweet can cause short-term rallies or dips, the underlying data and historical trends point downward.

The NASDAQ has lost its 50-week Moving Average (green line), global liquidity is trending lower, and the U.S. real estate market is weakening as mortgage rates average above 6.4%. The Fed currently has very little room to maneuver. Historically, mid-term years are challenging for equities. Despite the narrative that Donald Trump wants a great stock market, no single individual can simply wish away a macro downturn.

I expect the NASDAQ to trend toward its 200-week WMA (orange line). This does not mean we have to go fully down until this point. Remember, I am looking at the bigger picture over the coming months. Short-term counter-movements are part of the process, but the trend remains your friend until it ends.

I am expecting some more volatility coming up this week and all is focussed if there is any progress in the conversations about a war ending. Do not get me wrong: a quick ending could bring the markets surging in April. Nevertheless, I do not foresee a strong push over the summer months and see lower prices. What this means for Bitcoin? A falling stock market is likely the final catalyst needed for one last push toward a lower low in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin On-Chain Data

What does the internal data for Bitcoin show us in this macro chaos?

As shown in the data, long-term holders (LTH) are stepping in as buyers again. Does this mean we’ve hit the bottom? Not necessarily. Back in 2022, LTHs started deploying capital early, yet the bear market continued to play out with further downward movement. We are likely seeing a similar pattern now. However, on a long-term scale, these prices represent solid entry points, and seeing buyers in this area is a structurally positive sign.

Looking at the Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio, it confirms we aren't quite “there” yet. In every previous cycle, we reached the green capitulation area before the true reversal. We still have some room to move into that zone.

The Dashboard: KPI Check-in

The indicators I follow are not yet flashing a definitive bottom signal. Values are slowly trending in that direction, but given the time factor of this bear market and the current macro environment, there is likely more pain to come before the gain.

Final Thoughts

We saw crypto investors struggle to realize the bear market began in late 2025. We are likely seeing that same delayed realization in traditional markets right now. This is a classic psychological bias: it is difficult to change your original investment thesis and realize the market isn’t going in your favored direction.

A famous quote often attributed to Baron Rothschild (and echoed by Warren Buffett’s philosophy) is to buy when there is blood on the streets. This is fundamentally true. I would add that when everyone finally agrees “it is over” or “it will only go higher”, that is the true sign of an end. I have not seen that level of total capitulation yet; neither in Bitcoin nor the stock market.

Portfolio Management

Given the setup, my base case for new lows below $60k remains unchanged. The shorts I opened previously are still active. My overall allocation remains unchanged.

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

I started this newsletter to provide a clear guideline on trends and where we are heading. Lately, I ran into questions like: "Influencer X said this," "Trader Y posted that," or "I read on X that this will happen." I have to tell you one thing: most of you are consuming far too much noise.

In the past, I was exactly like this. I stared at charts all day, watched every YouTube update, and hung on every word of the big accounts. What did it achieve? First, it cost me immense amounts of time I could have used better. Second, I got distracted by the noise and failed to follow the big picture and my own rules. Worst of all, it created constant anxiety: a feeling that I needed to change my strategy every time a new video dropped.

If you see yourself in this description, take a deep breath. You are not alone. But you must understand that in life, whether in relationships, business, or charts, keeping the big picture in mind is everything. Market makers are happy to take your money when you are confused. So, let’s look at where we actually stand today.

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Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Understanding the Relief Rally: Trading vs. Investing

Since the $60k low, we have seen upward momentum. This is a fact. But to navigate this, you must know your plan: Are you a short-term trader or a long-term investor?

If you zoom out, we are still in a bearish setup. All this has happened multiple times in the past and is a normal reaction to being oversold. Could you trade this? Sure, if you want to take short term trading into consideration. We went up 27%. As we did in the last cycles (sometimes even over 55%).

However, I do not see how one can get bullish at this very stage. We are still below the $80k–$85k resistance level. This is where the highest volume was traded during the downtrend and where many short-term holders have their entry points (see the big green spike in the graph at $85k).

Checking the past - in none of the previous bear markets we have ever reached that point again. If we go above this level, we are likely to have seen the bottom. For me, nothings shows this - despite what some people out there say. The chart structure does not signal a bottom; statistically, the probability of further downside remains much higher.

The "Saylor Factor": Sustainable Demand or Short-Term Pump?

Michael Saylor has deployed roughly $3B into the market over the last two weeks, pushing his total holdings to 761,068 BTC. So that is a massive amount of money he raised and pumped into the system, which he was not able to do in the previous bear market. However, it is worth stating, that he did not have the big global standing back in 2022 as compared to now.

The question we must ask: Does this change the structural reality of the bear market, or is it just a temporary correction? In a risk-off macro environment, it is difficult to see how this level of demand can be sustained indefinitely. Even with high yields for his products, Saylor's buying power eventually faces limitations.

Final Thoughts

Markets hate uncertainty, and right now, we have it all over the place:

• Ongoing global conflicts and rising oil prices

• A hawkish Fed and expected higher inflation driven by energy costs

• Weak employment rates and increasing long-term yield curves, which signal trouble for the housing market

• While disruptive, the long-term effect of AI integration on corporate earnings and market liquidity is still being priced in

Given this unclear ground, I see no reason to change my thesis: lower prices are likely ahead. While I cannot give an exact date, looking at past seasonality, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the next leg down within the next 2 to 6 weeks.ks.

Portfolio Management

No changes in my portfolio this week. I am remaining patient: a skill that is often the most valuable asset an investor can possess.

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

We are entering a phase where Bitcoin seems not to be of interest for many. From mainstream media to X, forums, and Discord, the spotlight has shifted elsewhere. Global attention is currently fixated on the conflict in Iran, the latest Epstein revelations, and surging oil prices.

So, is Bitcoin dead (for now)? Hardly. We are simply entering the boring phase. The quiet period where focused observation pays off. Fun fact: Bitcoin has been declared dead 471 times to date (Source: bitcoindeaths.com). And yet, here we are. Today, I am checking the health of the network.

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Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Network Vitality: The Hash Rate

The Hash Rate is perhaps the most critical metric for Bitcoin’s health. An increasing rate means the network is more expensive to attack and signals long-term capital commitment. Mining is a capital-intensive business; no one invests billions into hardware and infrastructure without deep confidence in the network's longevity.

Currently, the hash rate is down about 7% from its peak, but it has grown nearly 4x since early 2023. However, a challenge is coming up for miners. The network currently generates roughly $30M in daily block reward payouts (Source: Bitinfocharts). With the block rewards decreasing each halving every four years, miners face a revenue squeeze if BTC price appreciation or transaction fees (currently only ~0.6% of revenue) don't compensate for the reduction.

This week, we also reached a milestone: the 20 millionth Bitcoin was minted, meaning only one million coins remain to be discovered (95.2% are already in circulation).

What does this show us?

The hash rate is increasing, but the block rewards are not, which means that miners need to find ways to increase their market share in order to increase their revenue potential (or they will not be cashflow positive anymore). For this, they would need capital and access to cheap energy to do so. At the end, this will favour larger miners and the decentralisation of the network will decrease.

Network Usage

On-chain data shows that active addresses are hovering near levels seen in 2017 and 2018. Why hasn’t this increased?

The answer lies in how we use Bitcoin today. Most participants interact through centralized exchanges, ETFs, custodians, or "wrapped" BTC. These layers handle the activity off-chain, meaning they don't generate new on-chain addresses.

As Bitcoin is also not being used for payments (as some people thought it could be), there is no increasing on-chain usage from this side.

The potential risk we have here is, if the active addresses continue to go down while the transactions fees keep as low as currently, miners could get under pressure at some point. Of course only if the Bitcoin price is not keep going up over time (which is however my thesis).

Looking at the addresses in general however, we see still a steady increase - they doubled within the last 6 years. So even with less active addresses, one could anticipate, more people buy and hold for a longer period and see a case for the digital gold concept.

Institutional Adoption

As mentioned earlier, we had the most successful ETF launch with Bitcoin. This reflects in currently 1.28m Bitcoin being hold by ETFs. That is 6.1% of the total supply. Also the fact, the even if we had a large pullback of the BTC price, the ETF holdings are only down around 9% from its all time high - this in fact, is a very positive signal.

So according to this data, ETF holders seem to have strong hands and these investors are more into long term holding rather than looking for a quick Dollar.

Next to the ETFs we also have a lot of holdings by other entities and treasury companies (Source: BitBo):

• Countries: 518.526 BTC ($37.06 Billion)

• Public Companies: 1.109.520 BTC ($79.29 Billion)

• Private Companies: 431.260 BTC ($30.82 Billion)

• BTC Mining Companies: 126.786 BTC ($9.06 Billion)

• Defi: 267.236 BTC ($19.10 Billion)

Including ETFs, approximately 17% of the total supply is now in institutional or state hands. Ask yourself: would these entities deploy billions into an asset they believe is going to zero?

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin remains a risk-on asset, but the risk/reward profile is shifting. I believe Bitcoin is actually becoming less risky to hold over time. It has 100% uptime, has never been hacked, and is now integrated into the offerings of almost every major global bank. The U.S. government has even established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

While influencers (or whatever you want to call them) talk about a return to $1.000 or claim it’s a Ponzi scheme, the data tells a different story:

1. Hash rate is up 6x over the last few years.

2. Institutional integration is complete (ETFs, custodians).

3. Bitcoin maintains its dominance as the #1 crypto asset.

Yet, only about 2% of the global population owns it. To me, that sounds like a very asymmetric opportunity.

Portfolio Management

No changes in my portfolio this week. I used the recent supply area retest to increase my short positions. Since we didn't fully reach my expected ceiling, the relief rally may not be entirely over: the $74k–$80k range remains a possibility.

However, on a macro scale, I am still looking for lower prices. Rising oil prices and a weakening S&P 500 at the end of the week could create further headwinds for Bitcoin. I’m staying patient (as you know by now).

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

We have seen some positive momentum over the past few days. As mentioned previously, this was an expected counter-reaction of the market from an oversold territory. However, this is a standard movement that we have seen in previous cycles. Today, I want to look at what we might expect over the coming months, review the KPI table I monitor, and provide an update on my personal positioning (It is getting serious).

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Cycle Awareness

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68k, down 46% from its ATH set on October 6, 2025 (153 days ago).

To put this into perspective:

• 2021 Cycle: Bitcoin was down 43% at this stage.

• 2017 Cycle: Bitcoin was down 59% at this stage.

Having been in this bear market for 5 months, Bitcoin is very much aligned with what we have seen in the past. While we started with a very fast pace, we seem to have fallen back into the familiar rhythms of previous cycles.

We have seen strong run-ups within bear markets: The so called bull-traps. I have seen many traders chasing these retracement rallies, but it is cruical to track the upside limits. Many people still refuse to think this is a bear market, keep their longs and will get “rekt” or forced to sit on losses for a long time.

Based on current patterns, we may have finished the second of three expected bear market rallies. However, the structure remains bearish. As I noted in my previous letter, I expected a reclaim in the $74k–$80k range. The fact that we topped out perfectly at $74k suggests to me that the uptrend probably has concluded.

Where do we go from now?

Looking back at 2022, when Bitcoin first crossed the 111 WMA (red line), it took six weeks to plunge below the 200 WMA (orange line). That was followed by an almost 150-day sideways phase before the final capitulation crash (FTX). If we extrapolate that six-week timeframe (yellow frame) to our current setup, the next 2–3 weeks will be critical. We need to observe if history repeats and we fail to hold the $60k range, dropping below $58.500. Projecting the 2022 timeline forward, we could potentially see the cycle bottom around late August or early September this year.

The Dashboard KPIs

As mentioned in the previous letter, I am looking at the following table (“Today’s” numbers are from the time of writing), compare the current situation with past movements and try to make a decision based on this data. Yes, last time I had further data points - which I am looking at as a support - however, these here are my main focus:

As you see, compared to previous cycle lows, there is still space for a further decrease. The 12-Month RSI has been lower some weeks ago and in the 2018 range, which is why I put it orange. All the others are still not close the previous cycle lows.

What does this mean?

I am observing how the market plays out and how these numbers evolve. If I see major changes, I get myself ready to deploy.

Final Thoughts

If I see a drop below the 200 WMA, I get a portion of my Cash ready to deploy. Not everything, but this will be on a long run, a very good entry point.

There is always the tension between deploying capital too early, not deploying enough in the bottom area and trying to get the right entry. I always mention to remain patient, but I mean this if you have some allocation already. If you are totally out of the market, the above tension kicks probably more. That’s why this time, you will find my %-allocation below, to give some more guidance here.

Portfolio Management

I personally used this recent run-up into the expected supply zone to scale into my short positions (with disciplined risk management, of course). This may not be what everyone wants to hear, but for me, this is not the right time to buy big. If the relief rally continues, I will act accordingly, but I currently see no reason to believe this bear market is over.

Therefore, patience remains king (I must sound like a broken disc at this stage).

How are my positions right now (excluding my shorts)?

• BTC: 15%

• ETH + SOL: 5%

• CASH: 80%

I am watching other projects, but I do not believe the moment is right for Altcoins yet.

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

A quick note to start: I am finalising a regular schedule for my updates, aiming for a consistent cadence of two posts per week (Thinking about Wednesdays and Sundays). Thank you for your patience as I fine-tune the structure. We will get this sorted out soon!

With that out of the way, let us move to the core of my analysis today. No talk of war or policy shifts today. What data am I actually watching?

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

When looking at Bitcoin, there are hundreds of indicators, curves, and random inventions people use to find "magic" outcomes. Even if you sometimes find truth in them (by coincidence or whatever), I try to stick to solid foundations that have been proven right in the past and are grounded in data.

The 10 Data Points

These are the metrics I monitor to see where we stand:

MVRV

This measures the relationship between Market Value and Realised Value.

To give some more perspective on what it means:

• Market Value (MV) is Bitcoin’s total market capitalisation (current price multiplied by circulating supply). It reflects what the market currently believes Bitcoin is worth.

• Realised Value (RV) calculates the value of every Bitcoin at the price it was last moved on-chain. It represents the aggregate "cost basis" of the entire supply; what holders actually paid for their coins.

The MVRV (Meaning MV divided by RV) ratio gives you a perspective on how much the current price is over (or under) the average costs price of all Bitcoins.

What does this mean in numbers?

• MVRV = 1: The price equals the average cost basis; most holders are at break-even.

• MVRV > 1: The majority are in profit. In bull markets, we see this climb significantly.

• MVRV < 1: The majority are in unrealised loss. Values below 1 have historically marked bear market lows and great accumulation zones (see the red areas in the chart).

Currently we have a MVRV of 1.23 → meaning we are around “fair value”, but not in a classic capitulation territory we have seen in previous bear markets.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score normalises the deviation statistically:

MVRV Z-Score = (Market Value – Realised Value) / standard deviation of Market Value

This version highlights extreme deviations more clearly (as we have seen in previous bull markets). Values above 7 have historically showed major tops, while values below 0 (or even negative) have marked undervaluation zones.

12-Month RSI

This helps me measure long-term momentum and potential trend exhaustion, filtering out short-term noise. As you see in the chart, the area between 44 and 39 are historically indicating a bottom area. Currently we sit at 44.44.

BTC vs. 200-Week Moving Average (WMA)

A classic technical benchmark that has acted as a macro support layer in previous cycles. Currently it sits around $58,400.

Supply held by Long-Term Holders (LTH)

Long-Term Holders (LTH) are defined as addresses holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more. This cohort is often viewed as “smart money”. Investors with high conviction who tend to accumulate during weakness and distribute (sell) into strength.

Rising LTH supply signals accumulation by strong hands, reducing available circulating supply and often supporting price floors. Declining LTH supply indicates distribution, which can create overhead pressure during bull runs.

LTH supply stands at approximately 72–73% of the circulating supply. Recent trends show net accumulation in the past month, suggesting conviction holders are buying weakness.

Supply held by STH

Short-Term Holders (STH) hold Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This group is frequently labeled “dumb money” ; typically retail. More price-sensitive, FOMO buying at highs and panic selling at lows.

Rising STH supply often coincides with euphoric tops, while sharp declines can signal capitulation and bottoms (weak hands shaking out).

STH supply is around 12–13% of circulating supply. This is relatively low and recent price weakness has seen limited panic from this cohort.

LTH Supply in Loss

When high-conviction holders begin to realize losses, it marks the final phase of a bear market. Currently, LTH supply in loss is negligible (<0.1%), suggesting that while we are in a correction, we haven’t reached full terminal capitulation.

Price-to-Cost-of-Production

When the market price drops below mining costs, forced miner selling often creates a floor. With Average Mining Costs at $89,800 and BTC at $68,400, our current ratio is 0.76.

BTC Realised Price Band

The average price paid by the market (currently ~$54,500). Historically, price tends to dip below this before finding a structural bottom.

Global Money Supply (M2)

As Bitcoin acts as a liquidity sponge, the growth of global M2 is the primary engine for “risk-on” environments. I have discussed how BTC is reacting to M2 (leading & lagging) in a previous report. As we currently have war going on, things remain being to observed and how this will play out.

Now, out of these data points, I have created a table to compare the current data against previous cycle lows. If you want to see exactly how this looks, subscribe for free so you do not miss it!

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Final Thoughts

You may ask which indicators are currently flashing green. My answer remains: we are still in a "wait and watch" phase. My strategy is not to guess the exact day of the bottom, but to wait until the confluence of these 10 data points aligns with a high-probability setup. However, some indicators show me, that we should not be too far away from a bottoming area (this is of course to be seen relatively to the ATH).

Portfolio Management

No major updates. As mentioned, if you have no allocation, current prices are at fair value, and I prefer to have "some eggs in the basket" rather than being completely out.

NOTE: This was written before todays run up. As mentioned in my previous post, this is an expected rally to approx. a range between $74k-80k in my perspective.

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

my original plan for today was to focus on the roadmap for the coming months. However, the world changed over the weekend. With the recent attacks involving Iran and several other nations, we are entering a phase of heightened volatility.

War is a tragedy first and foremost, but for the markets, its primary product is uncertainty. When you combine the drums of war with the rapid, disruptive rise of AI technology, which is currently reshaping our economy and daily lives, you get a perfect storm of unpredictability.

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Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Markets are built on anticipating future cash flows and stability. Right now, nobody can say for sure who the winners of this transition will be. When the “if” and “when” become too loud, investors do what they always do: they head for the exits. What does this mean for the market? I would expect a more volatile time ahead of us and the VIX to continue to increase.

Volatility is the New Baseline

Typically, markets try to price in the future. But how do you price in a world where kinetic warfare and AI disruption happen simultaneously?

Historically, values over 20 tend to go into risk-off mode. We came from a level below 15 and I expect to cross the 20 next week, as we did multiple times last year - which led to a sell off (e.g. April 2025: Liberation Day).

As we can see, the VIX is climbing. This mirrors the growing unease. While I observe many "bullish" charts for Bitcoin suggesting that BTC acts as a hedge during conflict (referencing brief rallies in previous wars), I remain skeptical.

The AI Disruption Factor

It’s not just the geopolitics. We are standing at the doorstep of an AI revolution that looks to disrupt the very foundations of our society. This adds another layer of Unknown Unknowns.

• Labor Markets: Uncertainty about job stability affects consumer spending. Below as one example which ran through the media the last days with Block releasing 40% of their labor force.

• Capital Allocation: Huge amounts of liquidity are being sucked into AI infrastructure, leaving less for speculative “risk-on” assets like crypto.

The "Relief Rally" Trap

Yes, we might see a technical bounce. A relief rally toward the $74k - $80k zone is possible (it would be a Short Squeeze getting >7b of shorts out of the market).

In my view, we are still firmly in a bear market. A spike to $74-80k would likely be a lower high on the macro scale before we see a further leg down over the coming months (which is my base case). Even though, we have seen the $60k holding now for a while, I would prefer the short rally up before we go down. Yes, there is always a probability we have seen the bottom - but as stated above, macro does not give me this indication yet.

Final Thoughts

Uncertainty is the enemy of growth. Until we have clarity on the escalation in the Middle East and a clearer picture of how AI integration affects corporate earnings, the so called Smart Money will likely stay on the sidelines or in Gold (as discussed in one of my previous letters).

Portfolio Management

I am holding my ground. While the temptation to “buy the dip” during war-induced volatility is high, the macro setup (Hawkish Fed + Geopolitical Stress + AI disruption) suggests that patience is still the most valuable asset in your portfolio. I am watching the $54k level (Realised Price) closely for any signs of a structural bottom, but we are not there yet.

If you have no position yet: On a long term perspective, I think we are trending around fair price. Many of the data points I am looking at are close to where I want them to be (more on this in a later letter).

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

most of us will probably only know the “Gold Rush” from what we have been told at history classes in school. This happened around the 1850s. That is the feeling many had in 2025, when the crypto spot ETFs were smashing almost daily records and everyone felt there is only one direction: “up right”.

Fast forwards to February 2026, it feels like waking up from a very long night with to many drinks. Since Oktober last year, we have seen consistent weekly net outflows from major crypto ETFs. With this, the question may arise: Was institutional adoption just the next hype? Is “Smart Money” leaving the dance floor?

Today, I am looking under the hood of the current market dynamics and provide some more clarity in that picture.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

ETF-Hangover: What is Really Happening?

First, let us look at the hard numbers:

• YTD 2026 Net Outflows: $4.5 billion

• Since October 2025 Peak: Cumulative $10 billion outflows

• Cumulative Net Inflows Since Launch: $54.4 billion

• Total ETF AUM: $91 billion (ca. 6% of BTC’s market cap)

Yes, the last months and especially the last 5 weeks have been challenging. However, it is easy to interpret the red bars on an ETF flow chart as a total exit. Giving it a more nuanced picture, we can see:

• Institutions are Rebalancing: Portfolio managers are bound by strict mandates. After the massive run-up in 2025, Bitcoin’s weighting in many diversified funds simply became “too large.” The selling we’ve seen since October isn’t necessarily a vote of no confidence; it is simple math. They are trimming gains to maintain their target allocations.

• Risk-Off Mode: Wall Street is reducing speculative bets. Uncertainty around FED rates, Trump policies & tariffs and Gold pulls liquidity. BTC is once again treated purely as a “risk asset,” not digital gold.

• There are no Buyers: The ETF narrative (“institutions finally here”) has cooled. No new billions from pensions/sovereigns on the horizon. What we have instead is rebalancing and no retail around the corner (especially after the October flash-crash.

• Technical & Psychological Feedback Loop: Coming from the previous point, this leads to: Outflows → less buy pressure → price drops → more outflows. Classic negative spiral.

The ETF outflows are real and painful, but they haven’t destroyed the $54.4B structural inflow foundation built since 2024. This is a stress test for the “Bitcoin as institutional asset” thesis. Honeymoon might be over, but we are just back to reality and need to organised ourselves after the shiny phase.

As mentioned in my previous report, US as main capital driver and Eurozone are going into risk-off mode. We have a potential War in Iran, there is still a war in Ukraine, we have the trade conflicts and many political “issues” growing in multiple countries. Additionally, we have the so seen holy grail, called AI, which may disrupt many things we have build our society and economy on. All this at once. there is a big portion of uncertainty in the markets, which is reflecting risk-on assets, and crypto is still seen as a risk-on asset class.

What I’m Watching Now

Looking at the graph, we can see that Bitcoin broke the main on-chain pricing models while heading to the Realised Price which currently ranges around $54,600. Considering past bear markets we tend to cross this line and bottom somewhere not far below it.

Additionally, the MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value) is something I closely observe in my analysis before making moves. Historically, we are in a very low phase already, however, the deep bear market at peak bottom, tend to give us a MVRV below 1.

It looks like we can see sellers getting less. However, there is still no big demand pressure incoming and the market seems to be week. Around the bottom area, there is normally a big shift in demand happening. This mirrors with my thesis above, that the price will probably drop below the Realised Price, meaning below the $54,600 mark before we are getting into the bottom area.

So I need to repeat myself like a clock: it is still the time to be patient.

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

In this piece, I’ve looked at Bitcoin and Global Liquidity, as there are many voices out there talking about a lag between Bitcoin and liquidity.

Last week, Global Liquidity rose to a record $188 trillion! This was mainly driven by another PBoC injection ahead of the Chinese New Year and the further weakness of the USD. So, if the “lagging” narrative is correct, we should see a rally within the next few months (according to Raoul Pal, who states in Global Macro Investor that Global Liquidity explains 90% of Bitcoin’s price action). But is this really the case?

Let’s take a look at the data for a deeper dive.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Currently, we see the 3-month annualized growth rate at 3.6%, while the annual growth rate sits at 8.7% with Global Liquidity at an all-time high (ATH).

Looking at this narrative or data, one could easily draw this conclusion. Nevertheless, if we look at what happened in previous cycles, Global Liquidity continued to increase even after Bitcoin peaked.

This suggests that what we’ve been told might not reflect reality. One could ask the question: Is Bitcoin perhaps not lagging Global Liquidity, but actually leading it?

Think about it. Markets in general are forward-looking (as seen when earnings reports are released, etc.). Since Bitcoin can be traded 24/7, all information on a global scale is immediately reflected in the price. Why would it lag? From my perspective, there is a valid chance that Bitcoin acts as a front-runner for an upcoming drainage of liquidity.

But maybe that’s too simple. When looking at the bear market, Global Liquidity seems to lead again. Why? Probably because in this environment, markets are waiting for clear signals from central banks and the government.

If what I’ve written above is true, we should see a drop in Global Liquidity soon. You might remember: in the previous cycle, the Fed’s rapid rate hikes, as a response to pandemic-induced inflation, caused a liquidity squeeze.

What could it be this time? With Kevin Warsh recently announced as the new Fed Chair, we’re seeing some interesting signals. He is known for being more hawkish:

· He clearly states a willingness to reduce the balance sheet, which is usually not a “sweet spot” for risk-on assets.

· He wants to curb government spending.

· He may not favor Quantitative Easing as much as previous Fed chairs did during crises.

I am aware he also favors cutting interest rates quickly rather than slowly; however, the current economic setup does not seem very stable and might result in a short-term pain scenario. Since I believe we are currently in a crypto bear market, all of this would only confirm this thesis.

Final Thoughts

As shown above, Bitcoin led Global Liquidity at previous cycle tops. And today? We see a potential shift in fiscal policy with the new Fed Chair. This will likely not have a positive impact on risk-on assets during this transition phase. Markets in the US and Europe are already “pricing this in,” with asset allocation strategies shifting to “risk-off” mode, and the Eurozone and UK following suit. Outliers are still Korea and China.

Portfolio Allocation

Based on the current setup, I remain in favor of staying patient and not leaning into “risk-on” mode just yet. The combination of a potential liquidity drainage and a shifting policy regime suggests that a defensive posture is the wiser choice for now.

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some valuable insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the Journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Four months have passed since Bitcoin peaked on October 6th. In the meantime, Gold continues to outperform.

But why is Gold outperforming? Is the BTC/Gold ratio giving us some signs? And why does it look like we may end up in a great buying opportunity?

This week, I am analyzing Gold vs BTC and identify potential catalysts for the next move.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Vamos!

Gold vs BTC

BTC is currently down roughly 46% from the high established on 06.10.25 (134 days ago).

Compared to the last two cycles:

• ‘21 Cycle: BTC was down 45% 134 days post the 09.11.21 peak

• ‘17 Cycle: BTC was down 59% 134 days post the 18.12.17 peak

So, Bitcoin is quite in line with last cycle. However, it feels worse this time.

Why is that?

In my view, this is due to the outperformance of Gold & Silver against Bitcoin’s weakness. Gold is up 26% since 06.10.25. Silver is up 51% (with 157% at its peak).

But - as in most of the cases - when we zoom out, one should not be concerned to much.

Data: XE.com - BTC vs Gold

A Comparison

• BTC is currently down 67% vs. Gold from its peak ratio of 40 on 17.12.24.

• In the last cycle, the ratio peaked at 37 and bottomed at 9 (76% decline).

• In the ‘17 cycle, the ratio peaked at 15 and bottomed at 2.6 (83% decline).

What can we see from here?

What we’ve seen so far look to be in line with what we would expect to see in terms of the Gold/BTC ratio.

The main difference from the past is, that Gold is outperforming, which makes it feel to be different.

However, do not forget that BTC grew 6.6x in this last cycle. Gold is not even up 2x over the same period. Therefore, the discussion if BTC has lost it’s strength relative to Gold, seems to be not more than recency bias.

What is the reason for Gold’s Outperformance?

Gold is the typical asset for global markets when there is uncertainty. Therefore, you may see it as a warning system → it goes up when the confidence in geopolitical, fiscal or monetary stability decreases. All this, before the real stress becomes visible in traditional market indicators.

Diving deeper, it seems that specifically China is the main driver in the rising Gold price, due to large purchases and a reduction from the US-Dollar exposure.

Data: Global Liquidity Index

Why does China buy Gold?

• No issuing country

• Cannot be sanctioned

• There is no counterparty

• Settlement rails cannot be blocked

BTC

At present, Bitcoin (“digital gold”) lacks the classic tailwinds that typically support traditional safe-haven assets. Despite the recent establishment of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, BTC continues to behave predominantly as a risk-on asset rather than a risk-off one.

Its price dynamics are governed by a distinct set of forces: waves of network adoption, global liquidity cycles, on-chain feedback loops, and other unique catalysts tied to technological proliferation and broader internet-scale growth.

For Bitcoin to fully evolve into a credible risk-off reserve asset, wide accumulation by central banks will likely be required. I expect this shift to materialise eventually, though probably not until the millennial generation assumes primary economic and policy influence.

Where might BTC/Gold Ratio Bottom?

So looking at my base case, I would anticipate the ratio to bottom similarly as in the past two cycles (with a higher low!). This would mean a decline of around 75% (which is close to where we are right now) and a ratio of around 10-11.

Closing Thoughts

Rotation from Gold/Silver?

I remain skeptical that this transition will occur in the foreseeable future. The investor bases for gold/commodities and cryptocurrency remain fundamentally different, shaped by generational preferences and risk tolerances.

Moreover, any capital rotation out of gold into Bitcoin is more likely to come from late-stage retail participants chasing commodity-like momentum. This group tends to enter at elevated valuations and is more vulnerable to drawdowns and realised losses.

For these reasons, I view patience as the best strategy at this very moment.

Bitcoin is now trading at $67k on the 200 EMA support level and the chart looks broken.

Data: TradingView

Portfolio Management

As mentioned above: I stay patient. There are no signs indicating “risk-on” and there is still potential for a further leg down over the coming weeks if the cycle performs as the previous one(s). I keep some cash on the side to deploy once I see clear signs from the market.

That’s it for today - I hope I could deliver some insights.

Maloha

Stay Humble. Stay Curious. Enjoy the journey.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice.